The predictive value of polls in a fragmented multi-party system: the Netherlands (1998–2021)

Although vote intention polls are often used in the public debate as forecasts of future election outcomes, their predictive value has been subjected to scholarly inquiry. This research note contributes literature by assessing simultaneously at macro-level (polls), meso-level (parties), and micro-level (voters). We analyse presented main polling agencies Netherlands (covering seven cycles between 1998 2021), well panel data 27,572 respondents 46 2006 2010, 35,574 31 2010 2012). reach three conclusions. First, generally do not provide more information than previous outcome, until last few weeks an cycle. Second, accuracy is lower for challenger parties non-challenger parties, particularly midway through Third, individual voters very low, months before election.